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Which is more likely on a mat at the gym?

A short fat girl who is very short and very fat, and a tall skinny guy who is very tall and very skinny, are standing in front of each other on a mat at the gym. They are both getting ready to wrestle each other. The tall skinny guy towers over the short fat girl by more than a foot (his 6-foot-1 vs her 4-foot-11) while the short fat girl outweighs the tall skinny guy by more than fifty pounds (her 195 pounds vs his 125 pounds). Neither one has any serious health issues and neither one is sedentary or otherwise inactive.
Which is more likely on a mat at the gym?
The tall skinny guy overpowering the short fat girl, taking her down, and then pinning her.
The short fat girl overpowering the tall skinny guy, taking him down, and then pinning him.
This poll was created on 2013-11-19 20:47:26 by ALOHARONN